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Prediction for CME (2024-10-01T23:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-10-01T23:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33659/-1
CME Note: Developing CME with bulk seen predominantly to the southeast in early frames with a very faint, oval-shaped/asymmetric halo shock portion, associated with an X7.1-class flare and associated eruption from AR3842 (S17E18). Coronal signatures include an EUV wave and large-scale dimming in SDO 171/193 with magnetic field line movement off the southern and southeast limbs and dimming of footpoints bridging the Active Region 3842 (S17E18) in GOES 284. [PRELIMINARY] closed out a non-arrival.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-04T11:47Z (-5.37h, +3.93h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 95.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2024/10/01 22:30Z
Plane of Sky 1: 03:20Z; 20.5Rsun; SE Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 04:00Z; 20.5Rsun; NW Direction
POS Difference: 00:40
POS Midpoint: 03:40Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 5:10

Numeric View/Impact Type: 4
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~11.86
Travel Time: ~11.86 * 5:10 = 61:17

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-10-04T011:47Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 3/5


Forecast Creation Time: 2024/10/02 15:50Z

Lead Time: 43.87 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-10-02T15:55Z

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